Under the emerging post-redistricting map, Republicans holding half the remaining toss-up districts would net just a one-seat loss — a 219-216 majority. That's a margin where a single defection kills any bill, which is operationally the same as dysfunction. Democrats don't need a wave to reclaim the gavel; they need to run the toss-up table. The play for both parties is the same: identify the 10-15 seats that actually decide the chamber and pour everything there.