With Gavin Newsom term-limited out, California Democrats have yet to consolidate around a dominant candidate for the 2026 gubernatorial race, according to RealClearPolitics. The field remains unsettled heading into a cycle where the party holds every statewide constitutional office.
Gov. Gavin Newsom has resisted backing any candidate in California's open gubernatorial primary, leaving no clear Democratic frontrunner in a race that will shape his prospective 2028 presidential campaign, according to Axios. Sen. Alex Padilla's decision not to seek the governorship caught Newsom off guard, depriving him of his preferred successor on the same day the governor won a statewide redistricting referendum.
California's Democratic-drawn map crammed two Republican incumbents — Rep. Ken Calvert (30-year Appropriations veteran) and Rep. Young Kim (three-term swing-district survivor) — into a single seat, the new 40th District, ahead of the June 2 primary. NBC News has the breakdown: a narrow majority of the new district's residents come from Calvert's current turf; roughly a third from Kim's.
The ugliness is now operational. Calvert's campaign linked Kim's past Trump criticism to political violence, prompting Kim to tell NBC: "This is just another desperate attempt by Ken Calvert because he cannot run on his 30-plus-year record in office." Calvert's response: "She tried to censure the president. She said he needed to be punished. She spent 10 years running away from him."
The play here is simple. California Republican strategist Dave Gilliard told NBC: "Calvert's best play is to get into a runoff with a Democrat, and then this race is over on June 2." Democrats don't need to win this seat. They just needed to make it cost something.