Thirty percent approval on the economy is not a slump — it's structural collapse. When 70% disapprove and a supermajority expects a recession within the year, you're past persuasion territory and into base-only math. For 2026 midterm strategists, this is the number that moves district-level targets: swing seats that flipped on kitchen-table concerns in 2020 and 2022 just got materially cheaper to compete in.