A 70-point disapproval floor is not a polling dip — it's a structural condition. Paired with inflation running at 3.8%, this is the combination that historically forecloses second-term recovery narratives: voters decide the economy is the president's fault, and approval rarely climbs back before the midterm penalty lands. For Democratic strategists, the play is simple: nationalize 2026 on cost-of-living and let Republicans vote on a budget that Hegseth just testified asks for $1.5 trillion in defense spending while grocery prices stay elevated.