Three numbers landed this week that belong in the same sentence: $29 billion — the Pentagon's cost estimate for the Iran operation — plus an April CPI print that marks the sharpest monthly inflation jump since 2023, while Trump flew to Beijing for a summit with no announced deliverables. The strategic read: tariff-driven price pressure is already hitting household budgets, the Iran tab is real money that has to come from somewhere, and a China visit without a binding agreement functions as a photo op that buys Xi leverage. Who benefits from that combination? Not the working-class voters who swung 2024 on affordability — and not the House members defending swing districts in 2026.