War on the Rocks flags a strategic vulnerability Europe has not fully priced in: the same insurance-cascade mechanism that shut the Strait of Hormuz could be replicated against the Danish Straits, severing LNG supply to Germany, Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states. The chokepoint doesn't have to be physically blocked — it has to be made uninsurable.
The receipts are concrete. Lloyd's List counted 56 tankers transiting Hormuz on the eve of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Feb. 28; two days later, just seven remained. Tanker traffic collapsed more than 80 percent before Iran laid a single mine. The Lloyd's Joint War Committee can cancel war-risk cover within 48 hours of a zone redesignation. Russia's Alabuga facility is producing Geran-2 drones — range exceeding 1,300 km — at 3,000 units per month, with Kaliningrad's range envelope comfortably covering the Danish Straits.
The play: a handful of deniable incidents, insurance withdrawal, self-deterring shipowners. NATO patrols detect; they cannot guarantee. Underwriters don't insure guarantees they can't enforce.