Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani landed in Washington Friday to meet with VP Vance, one day after telling al-Araby al-Jadeed there is a "high probability" the U.S. and Iran reach a deal. Speaking from Italy, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters the U.S. expects Iran's response to the draft agreement "today at some point," adding the hope is it's something that "can put us into a serious process of negotiation."
The geometry here: Pakistan convened the talks; China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Iran's top diplomat in Beijing — GOP Sen. Steve Daines of Montana publicly thanked him for it — and Qatar is the physical base for U.S. Central Command. That's a lot of hands on the wheel, none of them fully aligned.
While Al-Thani was briefing Vance, the UAE reported shooting down two Iranian ballistic missiles and three drones overnight. Diplomatic "high probability" and active missile exchanges running simultaneously is not a stability signal — it's a leverage signal.