Energy and food prices drove inflation back up to 3.8% in April as the war in Iran squeezed supply chains — the kind of grocery-receipt politics that historically punishes the party holding the White House regardless of cause. Republicans now own the economy and the Iran policy simultaneously, which means any inflation narrative that sticks in the midterm cycle sticks to them. Democrats who stay disciplined on affordability and resist the temptation to run on foreign-policy complexity have the cleaner shot.